Religious Affinities and International Intervention in Ethnic Conflicts in the Middle East and Beyond

This study examines the influence of religion on the extent of intervention in ethnic conflict using data from the Minorities at Risk ~MAR! dataset. Key questions include whether ethnoreligious minorities—which are defined here as ethnic minorities who belong to a different religion or a different denomination of the same religion as the majority group in a state—attract more intervention and whether religious affinities between a state and an ethnic minority make it more likely that the state will intervene on that minority’s behalf. Although it also addresses other regions and other religions, this study focuses on the Middle East-North Africa region ~MENA! and Islam. Anecdotally, Islamic identity has been becoming increasingly prominent in recent years and there have been a number of high-profile interventions on behalf of Muslim minorities in the MENA and elsewhere. However, anecdotal evidence is insufficient to reach definitive conclusions about whether the MENA is unique in this respect. Beyond these more specific concerns, the general issue of international intervention is becoming more visible in the world after the Cold War for three reasons. First, the end of superpower rivalry during the Cold War made intervention less one-dimensional than in the past. For example, when the United States and its allies intervene, they no longer